North America

Capability

Already present at extraordinary scale: technological, financial, institutional and human capability, research systems, public institutions, firms, infrastructure and the people who run them. The question this region puts is not whether capability exists, but what happens between capability and result.

Conversion

The hinge. Whether commitment becomes delivery: governance, procurement, permitting, coordination, administrative burden and the pipelines that turn funded decisions into service. The bottleneck sits between decision and delivery.

Outcomes

What people actually experience, and where. Results that are timely, trusted, resilient and broadly experienced, or results that arrive unevenly across places and populations with very different capacities, risks and relationships to institutions.

• 17%Trust in the U.S. federal government (2025)of U.S. adults trust it to do what is right always or most of the time.
  • Source Pew Research Center (2025)

    Public Trust in Government: 1958-2025

    Just 17% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right just about always or most of the time, one of the lowest readings since the question was first asked in 1958 (73%). The share has not been higher than 30% since 2007.

    Published

    2025-12-04

    Evidence period

    1958-2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    United States only; it says nothing about trust in Canada or Mexico. Measures trust in the federal government in Washington, one survey question over time.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• 1.8 millionIndigenous population of Canada (2021)5.0% of the population, with an average age of 33.6 years.
  • Source Statistics Canada, The Daily (2022)

    Indigenous population continues to grow and is much younger than the non-Indigenous population, although the pace of growth has slowed

    In 2021, 1.8 million Indigenous people were enumerated, 5.0% of Canada's population. Their average age was 33.6 years, compared with 41.8 years for the non-Indigenous population, and the Indigenous population grew by 9.4% from 2016 to 2021 (non-Indigenous: +5.3%).

    Published

    2022-09-21

    Evidence period

    2021 Census of Population (with 2016 comparison)

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    Canada only. Statistics Canada notes that growth partly reflects response mobility (people answering the Indigenous identity questions differently from one census to the next), and that some reserves and settlements were incompletely enumerated.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• $109.1 billionU.S. private AI investment (2024)nearly 12 times China's, according to the 2025 AI Index.
  • Source Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) (2025)

    The 2025 AI Index Report

    In 2024, U.S. private AI investment grew to $109.1 billion, nearly 12 times China's $9.3 billion, and U.S.-based institutions produced 40 notable AI models.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    2024

    Geography

    Global, with country comparisons

    Limitations

    Investment figures come from commercial data providers and cover private investment only. Country comparisons say nothing about who inside a country benefits.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• 38Long-term drinking water advisories on reserve (Sept 2026)still in effect in 36 communities, after 158 were lifted since November 2015.
  • Source Indigenous Services Canada (2026)

    Ending long-term drinking water advisories

    158 long-term drinking water advisories have been lifted since November 2015, and 38 long-term drinking water advisories remain in effect in 36 communities. An advisory becomes long-term once it has been in place for more than 12 months.

    Published

    2026-09-10

    Evidence period

    November 2015 to September 10, 2026

    Geography

    Canada (First Nations communities on reserve, south of 60°)

    Limitations

    An administrative count of advisories, not a measure of water security: lifting an advisory does not guarantee it stays lifted, and private systems, semi-public systems and communities north of 60° are counted differently or not at all. The page is a live counter, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• $3.7 trillionU.S. infrastructure investment gap (2024-2033)between the $9.1 trillion ASCE estimates is needed and the $5.4 trillion forecast.
  • Source American Society of Civil Engineers (2025)

    2025 Report Card for America's Infrastructure

    ASCE estimates investment needs total $9.1 trillion for all 18 Report Card categories to reach a state of good repair, against $5.4 trillion in forecast public and private investment for 2024 through 2033. "This leaves a gap of $3.7 trillion in investments for America's infrastructure if we keep investing at current funding levels."

    Published

    2025-03-25

    Evidence period

    Condition as of 2025; investment need and gap modelled for 2024 to 2033

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    ASCE is a professional body that advocates for higher infrastructure investment, so this is an expert assessment against its own criteria rather than an independent audit. Its own pages state the gap as both $3.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion; the economics page and ASCE's news release say $3.7 trillion.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• 23.0U.S. billion-dollar disasters a year (2020-2024)against an annual average of 9.0 across 1980-2024, in a series NOAA has since retired.
  • Source NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2025)

    Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: United States summary

    From 1980 to 2024 there were 403 confirmed weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each, totalling $2,918.1 billion and 16,941 deaths. The 1980-2024 annual average is 9.0 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent five years, 2020-2024, is 23.0 events.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    1980 to 2024

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    The series has been retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024, so there is no official figure for 2025 or later; NOAA states the 1980-2024 archive remains authoritative. It counts direct losses only, above a $1 billion threshold that is sensitive to inflation, and draws partly on private insurance data that is not public.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

1. Climate exposure and the demand for adaptation

   Impacts are already more frequent and intense, and the cost of the most damaging events has risen far above its long-run average.

   • Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report (2022)

     Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 14: North America

     Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent and intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America; accelerating hazards pose significant risks to well-being (high confidence). Entrenched socioeconomic vulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for marginalised groups, including Indigenous Peoples, due to the impact of colonialism and discrimination (medium confidence). Without limiting warming to 1.5°C, key risks to North America are expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century, including irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing and disruption of livelihoods (high confidence). Immediate, widespread and coordinated adaptation focused on equity has the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans (high confidence).

     Published

     2022

     Evidence period

     Assessed literature to 2021

     Geography

     Canada, Mexico and the United States

     Limitations

     An assessment of published literature with a 2021 cut-off. Confidence levels vary by finding and are stated with each one.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2025)

     Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: United States summary

     From 1980 to 2024 there were 403 confirmed weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each, totalling $2,918.1 billion and 16,941 deaths. The 1980-2024 annual average is 9.0 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent five years, 2020-2024, is 23.0 events.

     Published

     2025

     Evidence period

     1980 to 2024

     Geography

     United States

     Limitations

     The series has been retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024, so there is no official figure for 2025 or later; NOAA states the 1980-2024 archive remains authoritative. It counts direct losses only, above a $1 billion threshold that is sensitive to inflation, and draws partly on private insurance data that is not public.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source NOAA National Weather Service, Office of Water Prediction (2025)

     NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot Technical Report, Version 1.1.p

     The standard currently embedded in engineering and floodplain practice assumes a stable climate: "The analysis and methodologies used to estimate precipitation frequencies in the NOAA Atlas 14 series assumed that the climate is stationary in a statistical context." NOAA notes that standard "is referenced in many engineering design standards and floodplain regulations". Moving to a nonstationary framework in the Montana pilot shifted 1 percent annual-chance estimates, with differences "generally within about 20%". National replacement is scheduled for 2027.

     Published

     2025-03-25

     Evidence period

     Montana pilot domain; present-day estimates for base year 2023 and projections to 2100

     Geography

     United States, piloted over Montana ahead of national rollout

     Limitations

     The report states its values "are preliminary and intended for comparison and feedback purposes only as this analysis has not completed the peer review process". Results are for the Montana pilot and do not generalise nationally; differences run in both directions. Projections depend on downscaled climate models and emissions scenarios, and the publication timetable has already moved once.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

2. Demographic and migration assumptions

   Both countries' population assumptions have moved quickly: U.S. net international migration fell 53.8% in a year, and Canada recorded a quarterly population decrease with permanent admissions down 20.2%.

   • Source U.S. Census Bureau (2026)

     U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration

     "Between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew by 1.8 million (or 0.5%) to reach 341.8 million." Net international migration was 1.3 million, "a notable drop from 2.7 million the year before (a decline of 53.8%)", while natural change neared 519,000. Growth varied sharply by place: South Carolina grew 1.5 percent while California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia declined.

     Published

     2026-01-27

     Evidence period

     July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025 (Vintage 2025 estimates)

     Geography

     United States, by region and state

     Limitations

     These are estimates, not a census, and the Bureau warns that "year-to-year comparisons in the estimates should only be done within the same vintage" because of methodological updates. Part of the measured fall reflects a changed estimation method, and the 2026 figure quoted in the release is a projection.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

3. Labour-market entry and the shape of work ahead

   The change is anticipated rather than measured: U.S. youth unemployment fell 1.7 points in the year to July 2026, while BLS projects office and administrative support occupations to shed 752,100 jobs by 2035 as automation is integrated into workflows.

   • Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026)

     Employment and Unemployment Among Youth, Summer 2026

     "The youth unemployment rate, at 9.1 percent in July 2026, was 1.7 percentage points lower than the rate in July 2025 (10.8 percent)." In July 2026, 53.8 percent of young people were employed, little changed from 53.1 percent a year earlier. Rates for young women (9.4 percent), Black youth (12.0 percent) and Asian youth (11.0 percent) showed little change.

     Published

     2026-08-20

     Evidence period

     April to July 2026, compared with July 2025

     Geography

     United States

     Limitations

     A July snapshot that is not seasonally adjusted, so it is not comparable with monthly headline series, and it covers all 16 to 24 year olds rather than recent graduates. Subgroup estimates are volatile.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026)

     Employment Projections: 2025 to 2035

     "The U.S. economy is projected to add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035", growth of 3.5 percent against 10.9 percent over the previous decade. BLS expects office and administrative support occupations to "decline at the fastest pace (-4.0 percent)" and shed 752,100 jobs as automation including AI is integrated into workflows, while healthcare support and practitioner occupations account for almost a third of all new jobs.

     Published

     2026-08-27

     Evidence period

     Base year 2025, projected to 2035

     Geography

     United States

     Limitations

     A projection, not an outcome. BLS states that "this precision in the data does not account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market" and applies AI adjustments conservatively. It assumes full employment in the target year.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

4. Skills-to-work conversion

   Capability that institutions do not recognise or deploy is capability lost: a quarter of recent immigrants with postsecondary credentials work in jobs requiring a high school diploma or less.

   • Source Statistics Canada (2026)

     Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

     Recent immigrants were most likely to report being overqualified for their job (32.6%), against 22.4% of established immigrants and 19.1% of people born in Canada. On the harder measure, 25.6% of recent immigrants were working in a job requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Recent immigrants with a degree above a bachelor's were "about 6 times more likely than those born in Canada to be working in a job requiring only a high school diploma or less (16.1% vs. 2.8%)".

     Published

     2026-04-07

     Evidence period

     September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined

     Geography

     Canada

     Limitations

     A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Statistics Canada (2024)

     Literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving skills of Canadians: Results from the 2022 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies

     "Canada's average score in literacy (271), numeracy (271) and adaptive problem solving (259) was above the OECD averages of 259, 262 and 250, respectively." Among the 27 participating OECD countries, Canada ranked in the top 10 in all three skill domains, and had one of the smallest proportions of adults in the two lowest literacy levels (19% compared with 27% among participating OECD countries).

     Published

     2024-12-10

     Evidence period

     Collected 2022 to 2023, compared with the 2012 cycle

     Geography

     Canada, compared with 27 participating OECD countries

     Limitations

     Cycle 2 data exclude the territories. The assessment was administered in English or French, so performance can reflect language proficiency as well as skill, which matters in a country with a large immigrant population. Scores are sample estimates, so a precise rank position within the top ten is not established.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Indigenous people in Canada

  A younger and faster-growing population than the non-Indigenous population: average age 33.6 against 41.8, growth of 9.4% from 2016 to 2021 against 5.3%.

  • Source Statistics Canada, The Daily (2022)

    Indigenous population continues to grow and is much younger than the non-Indigenous population, although the pace of growth has slowed

    In 2021, 1.8 million Indigenous people were enumerated, 5.0% of Canada's population. Their average age was 33.6 years, compared with 41.8 years for the non-Indigenous population, and the Indigenous population grew by 9.4% from 2016 to 2021 (non-Indigenous: +5.3%).

    Published

    2022-09-21

    Evidence period

    2021 Census of Population (with 2016 comparison)

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    Canada only. Statistics Canada notes that growth partly reflects response mobility (people answering the Indigenous identity questions differently from one census to the next), and that some reserves and settlements were incompletely enumerated.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Indigenous and Tribal communities as designers, owners and operators

  Not only affected populations: 37 new or enhanced Indigenous Guardians Programs were in implementation or sustain phases as of November 2024, and NTIA has made 275 awards totalling $2.2 billion to Tribal governments, organizations and Alaska Native Corporations building and running their own networks.

  • Source Parks Canada Agency (2025)

    Evaluation of the Indigenous Guardians Initiative: Internal review

    Parks Canada received $61.7 million to be invested between 2021-22 and 2025-26. As of November 2024 the initiative reported 37 new or enhanced Indigenous Guardians Programs in the implementation or sustain phases, plus five in capacity building. Spending ramped up slowly: $1.03 million in 2021-22, $5.93 million in 2022-23 and $10.25 million in 2023-24. The review found the initiative "has been effective in supporting the development of Indigenous Guardians programs", but that evidence of a strategy to support the programs beyond 2026 was limited.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    Activities 2021-22 to 2024-25; fieldwork August 2023 to July 2024

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    An internal review, not an independent evaluation, and it explicitly did not examine the performance of individual programs, "the aims of which are determined by the values and priorities of Indigenous communities". It covers Parks Canada's portion of the federal investment only. So it documents delivery and a funding-cliff risk, not measured stewardship outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source National Telecommunications and Information Administration (2025)

    NTIA Announces Tribal Broadband Program Reforms to Maximize Tribal Connectivity and Reduce Red Tape

    "NTIA has already made 275 awards totaling $2.2 billion with TBCP funding." The first notice of funding opportunity "awarded more than $1.87 billion in funds through 226 projects impacting more than 400 Tribes", and the second "awarded $360 million in funds across 48 projects". Remaining tribal broadband funding, estimated at at least $500 million, was to be offered through a new notice in spring 2026.

    Published

    2025-11-12

    Evidence period

    Cumulative programme awards to November 2025

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    An agency press release reporting awards made, not construction completed, service activated or households connected. No connectivity outcome can be inferred from it.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Marginalised groups, including Indigenous Peoples

  The IPCC finds that entrenched socioeconomic vulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for these groups (medium confidence), and that loss of access to marine and terrestrial sources of protein has impaired the food security of subsistence-dependent Indigenous Peoples (high confidence).

  • Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report (2022)

    Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 14: North America

    Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent and intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America; accelerating hazards pose significant risks to well-being (high confidence). Entrenched socioeconomic vulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for marginalised groups, including Indigenous Peoples, due to the impact of colonialism and discrimination (medium confidence). Without limiting warming to 1.5°C, key risks to North America are expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century, including irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing and disruption of livelihoods (high confidence). Immediate, widespread and coordinated adaptation focused on equity has the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans (high confidence).

    Published

    2022

    Evidence period

    Assessed literature to 2021

    Geography

    Canada, Mexico and the United States

    Limitations

    An assessment of published literature with a 2021 cut-off. Confidence levels vary by finding and are stated with each one.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Alaska Native villages and northern communities

  More than 70 of over 200 Alaska Native villages face significant environmental threats from erosion, flooding or thawing permafrost, and the GAO found most of the more than 30 federal programs that could help are hard for small communities to access.

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-22-104241) (2022)

    Alaska Native Issues: Federal Agencies Could Enhance Support for Native Village Efforts to Address Environmental Threats

    More than 70 out of over 200 Alaska Native villages face significant environmental threats from erosion, flooding, or thawing permafrost. More than 30 federal programs could assist them, but most are difficult for small communities to access. GAO made eight recommendations to seven federal agencies and asked Congress to consider establishing an interagency entity to target federal investment.

    Published

    2022-05-18

    Evidence period

    Federal funding for fiscal years 2016 to 2020

    Geography

    United States (Alaska)

    Limitations

    Published in 2022, so it predates later federal climate and infrastructure funding, and the status of its recommendations is not captured here. It is Alaska-specific: it does not describe Tribal Nations in the contiguous United States. Threat counts rest on agency-supplied assessments.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• First Nations communities under long-term drinking water advisories

  38 long-term advisories remain in effect in 36 communities after 158 were lifted, so within one country some communities have had unsafe tap water for more than a decade.

  • Source Indigenous Services Canada (2026)

    Ending long-term drinking water advisories

    158 long-term drinking water advisories have been lifted since November 2015, and 38 long-term drinking water advisories remain in effect in 36 communities. An advisory becomes long-term once it has been in place for more than 12 months.

    Published

    2026-09-10

    Evidence period

    November 2015 to September 10, 2026

    Geography

    Canada (First Nations communities on reserve, south of 60°)

    Limitations

    An administrative count of advisories, not a measure of water security: lifting an advisory does not guarantee it stays lifted, and private systems, semi-public systems and communities north of 60° are counted differently or not at all. The page is a live counter, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Rural and remote households

  Fixed broadband at 100/20 Mbps reached approximately 86.7% of rural Americans and 87.6% on Tribal lands, against approximately 99.5% in urban areas.

  • Source Federal Communications Commission (FCC 26-55) (2026)

    2026 Section 706 Report on the Deployment of Advanced Telecommunications Capability

    As of June 2025, "approximately 97% of Americans had access to Fixed Terrestrial Service at 100/20 Mbps". Availability was approximately 99.5% in urban areas, against approximately 86.7% in rural areas and approximately 87.6% on Tribal lands.

    Published

    2026-08-14

    Evidence period

    Broadband Data Collection deployment data as of June 30, 2025

    Geography

    United States, with rural, urban and Tribal lands breakdowns

    Limitations

    This measures availability, not adoption, affordability or actual subscription: a household counted as served may not have service. It rests on provider-reported data. The Commission's conclusion that deployment is "reasonable and timely" is a policy judgement that reverses the 2024 report's finding, not a change in the underlying data.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Recent immigrants with postsecondary credentials

  32.6% report being overqualified for their job, and 25.6% work in jobs requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Those with a degree above a bachelor's are about six times more likely than the Canadian-born to be in such a job.

  • Source Statistics Canada (2026)

    Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

    Recent immigrants were most likely to report being overqualified for their job (32.6%), against 22.4% of established immigrants and 19.1% of people born in Canada. On the harder measure, 25.6% of recent immigrants were working in a job requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Recent immigrants with a degree above a bachelor's were "about 6 times more likely than those born in Canada to be working in a job requiring only a high school diploma or less (16.1% vs. 2.8%)".

    Published

    2026-04-07

    Evidence period

    September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Small organizations against large ones

  37% of U.S. firms with at least 250 employees reported using AI against less than 20% of firms with four or fewer, and adoption rose only among firms with at least 20 employees, so the capacity to absorb new technology is itself unequally distributed.

  • Source U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (2026)

    Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users

    Across December 2025 to May 2026, "AI usage hovered between 17% and 20%", standing at 19.8% on May 3, 2026. Adoption is strongly graded by size: 37% of firms with at least 250 employees and 32% of firms with 100 to 249 employees reported using AI, against less than 20% of firms with four or fewer employees. "AI use increased among firms with at least 20 employees but didn't change significantly among firms with fewer than 20 employees."

    Published

    2026-05-26

    Evidence period

    Collection periods December 14, 2025 to May 3, 2026

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    An experimental Census data product. Use is self-reported over a two-week window and says nothing about depth, spending or realised productivity. The headline rate is firm-weighted, so "most firms do not use AI" and "many workers are at firms that do" can both be true. The trend window is under six months.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Business Conditions (2026)

    Analysis on artificial intelligence use by businesses in Canada, second quarter of 2026

    "In the second quarter of 2026, 19.2% of businesses reported using AI to produce goods or deliver services over the 12 months preceding the survey." That is triple the 6.1% reported in the second quarter of 2024, and up from 12.2% a year earlier. The most common uses were data analytics (36.6%), text analytics (34.5%) and virtual agents or chat bots (28.2%).

    Published

    2026-06-11

    Evidence period

    Collected April 1 to May 6, 2026, reporting on the preceding 12 months

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    Self-reported adoption with no measure of intensity or outcome: "using AI" covers everything from one chatbot to redesigned operations. The rolling 12-month reference window differs by respondent, and roughly half the sample did not respond. No comparison with the United States is made.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Common assumption

  More money produces proportionately more outcomes.

  What the evidence shows

  Of approximately $574.7 billion, four U.S. agencies obligated about 76 percent and disbursed about 54 percent of what they obligated. NTIA disbursed about 2 percent of the funding it obligated for the broadband programme that is about 89 percent of its infrastructure money. Funding is an input; the pipeline between commitment and service is where outcomes are won or lost.

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-26-108434) (2026)

    Funding Status: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act

    "Of the approximately $574.7 billion provided to them, the four agencies obligated about 76 percent and disbursed about 54 percent of obligated funds for fiscal years 2022 to 2025." The pace differs sharply by programme: about 89 percent of NTIA's IIJA funding was for the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment Program, where "NTIA disbursed about 2 percent of the funding it obligated", while for EPA's Drinking Water State Revolving Fund, "EPA obligated about 60 percent of the appropriations for this program and disbursed almost 25 percent of the obligated amount as of September 30, 2025".

    Published

    2026-07-22

    Evidence period

    Fiscal years 2022 to 2025, status as of September 30, 2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    A financial status report, not an evaluation of what was built. Obligation and disbursement are accounting stages, and capital programmes legitimately lag, so a low disbursement rate is a signal to examine rather than proof of failure. It covers four agencies only.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-24-106541) (2024)

    Tribal Broadband: Additional Assistance to Recipients Would Better Support Implementation of $3 Billion in Federal Grants

    "NTIA was appropriated $3 billion for TBCP", completing the first of two funding rounds in September 2023, reaching 31 tribal recipients that had not recently participated in eight other key federal broadband programs. GAO found "it will be difficult to financially sustain networks built under TBCP": over half of recipients with infrastructure projects planned to rely on other federal funding that has proven difficult to obtain or has ended. NTIA agreed with all three recommendations.

    Published

    2024-06-24

    Evidence period

    Tribal Broadband Connectivity Program round one, completed September 2023

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    The interview sample is explicitly non-generalizable and covers round one only. The report examines grant administration and financial sustainability. It contains no data on networks completed or households connected, so it cannot show connectivity outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Common assumption

  Canada has a skills shortage.

  What the evidence shows

  Canadian adults rank in the top ten of 27 OECD countries in literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving, while relative labour productivity has fallen 26% since the late 1990s and 25.6% of recent immigrants with postsecondary credentials work in jobs requiring a high school diploma or less. The harder problem is utilization, not supply.

  • Source Statistics Canada (2024)

    Literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving skills of Canadians: Results from the 2022 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies

    "Canada's average score in literacy (271), numeracy (271) and adaptive problem solving (259) was above the OECD averages of 259, 262 and 250, respectively." Among the 27 participating OECD countries, Canada ranked in the top 10 in all three skill domains, and had one of the smallest proportions of adults in the two lowest literacy levels (19% compared with 27% among participating OECD countries).

    Published

    2024-12-10

    Evidence period

    Collected 2022 to 2023, compared with the 2012 cycle

    Geography

    Canada, compared with 27 participating OECD countries

    Limitations

    Cycle 2 data exclude the territories. The assessment was administered in English or French, so performance can reflect language proficiency as well as skill, which matters in a country with a large immigrant population. Scores are sample estimates, so a precise rank position within the top ten is not established.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Statistics Canada, Economic and Social Reports (2026)

    Measuring Canada's economic performance relative to the United States

    "Canada's relative labour productivity has fallen 26% since the late 1990s", standing at 73.9 against a first-quarter-1997 base of 100. Relative output per capita in the third quarter of 2025 was 14% below early-1997 levels, and relative GNI per capita 10% below.

    Published

    2026-03-25

    Evidence period

    First quarter 1997 to third quarter 2025

    Geography

    Canada relative to the United States

    Limitations

    These are relative index levels rebased to the first quarter of 1997, not absolute productivity levels or a dollar gap, so the base period shapes the headline. Cross-country comparison depends on purchasing-power conversion and hours-worked measurement, both of which are revised.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Statistics Canada (2026)

    Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

    Recent immigrants were most likely to report being overqualified for their job (32.6%), against 22.4% of established immigrants and 19.1% of people born in Canada. On the harder measure, 25.6% of recent immigrants were working in a job requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Recent immigrants with a degree above a bachelor's were "about 6 times more likely than those born in Canada to be working in a job requiring only a high school diploma or less (16.1% vs. 2.8%)".

    Published

    2026-04-07

    Evidence period

    September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Common assumption

  Indigenous and Tribal communities are recipients of programmes.

  What the evidence shows

  They are also designers, owners and operators. 37 new or enhanced Indigenous Guardians Programs were in implementation or sustain phases as of November 2024, and Tribal governments, organizations and Alaska Native Corporations hold 275 broadband awards worth $2.2 billion for networks they build and run.

  • Source Parks Canada Agency (2025)

    Evaluation of the Indigenous Guardians Initiative: Internal review

    Parks Canada received $61.7 million to be invested between 2021-22 and 2025-26. As of November 2024 the initiative reported 37 new or enhanced Indigenous Guardians Programs in the implementation or sustain phases, plus five in capacity building. Spending ramped up slowly: $1.03 million in 2021-22, $5.93 million in 2022-23 and $10.25 million in 2023-24. The review found the initiative "has been effective in supporting the development of Indigenous Guardians programs", but that evidence of a strategy to support the programs beyond 2026 was limited.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    Activities 2021-22 to 2024-25; fieldwork August 2023 to July 2024

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    An internal review, not an independent evaluation, and it explicitly did not examine the performance of individual programs, "the aims of which are determined by the values and priorities of Indigenous communities". It covers Parks Canada's portion of the federal investment only. So it documents delivery and a funding-cliff risk, not measured stewardship outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source National Telecommunications and Information Administration (2025)

    NTIA Announces Tribal Broadband Program Reforms to Maximize Tribal Connectivity and Reduce Red Tape

    "NTIA has already made 275 awards totaling $2.2 billion with TBCP funding." The first notice of funding opportunity "awarded more than $1.87 billion in funds through 226 projects impacting more than 400 Tribes", and the second "awarded $360 million in funds across 48 projects". Remaining tribal broadband funding, estimated at at least $500 million, was to be offered through a new notice in spring 2026.

    Published

    2025-11-12

    Evidence period

    Cumulative programme awards to November 2025

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    An agency press release reporting awards made, not construction completed, service activated or households connected. No connectivity outcome can be inferred from it.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Common assumption

  AI has already transformed work and closed entry-level doors across North America.

  What the evidence shows

  The measured picture is smaller than the anticipated one. U.S. youth unemployment fell 1.7 percentage points in the year to July 2026, and the St. Louis Fed's own researchers put reported time savings at 1.6% of work hours, suggesting generative AI "may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3%" while stressing the finding "cannot be interpreted as causal". BLS projects significant occupational change by 2035, but labels it a projection with explicit uncertainty.

  • Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026)

    Employment and Unemployment Among Youth, Summer 2026

    "The youth unemployment rate, at 9.1 percent in July 2026, was 1.7 percentage points lower than the rate in July 2025 (10.8 percent)." In July 2026, 53.8 percent of young people were employed, little changed from 53.1 percent a year earlier. Rates for young women (9.4 percent), Black youth (12.0 percent) and Asian youth (11.0 percent) showed little change.

    Published

    2026-08-20

    Evidence period

    April to July 2026, compared with July 2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    A July snapshot that is not seasonally adjusted, so it is not comparable with monthly headline series, and it covers all 16 to 24 year olds rather than recent graduates. Subgroup estimates are volatile.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2025)

    The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025

    Generative AI use among adults rose from 44.6% in August 2024 to 54.6% a year later, and use at work from 33.3% to 37.4%, but intensity stayed low: the share of work hours spent using it rose from 4.1% to 5.7%. Across all workers, reported time savings equal 1.6% of work hours, which the authors say "suggests that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% since the introduction of ChatGPT", while stressing the correlation "cannot be interpreted as causal".

    Published

    2025-11-13

    Evidence period

    Real-Time Population Survey, August 2024 to August 2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    Time savings are self-reported, not measured output, and the productivity figure is an upper bound from a stylised model. The authors state plainly that the correlation "cannot be interpreted as causal". Published as central-bank blog research rather than peer-reviewed work.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2026)

    Employment Projections: 2025 to 2035

    "The U.S. economy is projected to add 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035", growth of 3.5 percent against 10.9 percent over the previous decade. BLS expects office and administrative support occupations to "decline at the fastest pace (-4.0 percent)" and shed 752,100 jobs as automation including AI is integrated into workflows, while healthcare support and practitioner occupations account for almost a third of all new jobs.

    Published

    2026-08-27

    Evidence period

    Base year 2025, projected to 2035

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    A projection, not an outcome. BLS states that "this precision in the data does not account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market" and applies AI adjustments conservatively. It assumes full employment in the target year.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

1. Governing Technological Diffusion, Not Merely Invention

   Who captures the benefits when technology moves faster than organizations can redesign work?

   Adoption is concentrating in the largest organizations while public institutions adopt faster than they can govern, so the question is who the gains reach.

   4P: People, Process, PortfolioSDGs: 8, 9, 10

   Rests on: Technological change is moving faster than organizations are adapting

   • Source U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (2026)

     Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users

     Across December 2025 to May 2026, "AI usage hovered between 17% and 20%", standing at 19.8% on May 3, 2026. Adoption is strongly graded by size: 37% of firms with at least 250 employees and 32% of firms with 100 to 249 employees reported using AI, against less than 20% of firms with four or fewer employees. "AI use increased among firms with at least 20 employees but didn't change significantly among firms with fewer than 20 employees."

     Published

     2026-05-26

     Evidence period

     Collection periods December 14, 2025 to May 3, 2026

     Geography

     United States

     Limitations

     An experimental Census data product. Use is self-reported over a two-week window and says nothing about depth, spending or realised productivity. The headline rate is firm-weighted, so "most firms do not use AI" and "many workers are at firms that do" can both be true. The trend window is under six months.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Business Conditions (2026)

     Analysis on artificial intelligence use by businesses in Canada, second quarter of 2026

     "In the second quarter of 2026, 19.2% of businesses reported using AI to produce goods or deliver services over the 12 months preceding the survey." That is triple the 6.1% reported in the second quarter of 2024, and up from 12.2% a year earlier. The most common uses were data analytics (36.6%), text analytics (34.5%) and virtual agents or chat bots (28.2%).

     Published

     2026-06-11

     Evidence period

     Collected April 1 to May 6, 2026, reporting on the preceding 12 months

     Geography

     Canada

     Limitations

     Self-reported adoption with no measure of intensity or outcome: "using AI" covers everything from one chatbot to redesigned operations. The rolling 12-month reference window differs by respondent, and roughly half the sample did not respond. No comparison with the United States is made.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-25-107653) (2025)

     Artificial Intelligence: Generative AI Use and Management at Federal Agencies

     Across the selected agencies, the total number of reported AI use cases nearly doubled from 571 in 2023 to 1,110 in 2024, and generative AI use cases increased about nine-fold, from 32 to 282. Officials reported challenges complying with existing federal policies and guidance, obtaining technical resources and budget, and keeping pace with the technology.

     Published

     2025-07-29

     Evidence period

     Agency AI use-case inventories for 2023 and 2024

     Geography

     United States (federal agencies)

     Limitations

     Counts are self-reported by agencies and cover twelve selected agencies, not the whole federal government. It measures adoption and management practice, not outcomes for the public. Federal AI guidance changed in early 2025, so the two years are not a clean like-for-like trend.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

2. Making Place Matter in Leadership Decisions

   How should leadership change when national averages conceal radically different local realities?

   97% national broadband availability, 86.7% rural; 158 water advisories lifted, 36 communities still waiting. The average is true and the place is truer.

   4P: People, Process, PlanetSDGs: 9, 10, 11

   Rests on: Essential systems increasingly produce geographically unequal outcomes

   • Source Federal Communications Commission (FCC 26-55) (2026)

     2026 Section 706 Report on the Deployment of Advanced Telecommunications Capability

     As of June 2025, "approximately 97% of Americans had access to Fixed Terrestrial Service at 100/20 Mbps". Availability was approximately 99.5% in urban areas, against approximately 86.7% in rural areas and approximately 87.6% on Tribal lands.

     Published

     2026-08-14

     Evidence period

     Broadband Data Collection deployment data as of June 30, 2025

     Geography

     United States, with rural, urban and Tribal lands breakdowns

     Limitations

     This measures availability, not adoption, affordability or actual subscription: a household counted as served may not have service. It rests on provider-reported data. The Commission's conclusion that deployment is "reasonable and timely" is a policy judgement that reverses the 2024 report's finding, not a change in the underlying data.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Indigenous Services Canada (2026)

     Ending long-term drinking water advisories

     158 long-term drinking water advisories have been lifted since November 2015, and 38 long-term drinking water advisories remain in effect in 36 communities. An advisory becomes long-term once it has been in place for more than 12 months.

     Published

     2026-09-10

     Evidence period

     November 2015 to September 10, 2026

     Geography

     Canada (First Nations communities on reserve, south of 60°)

     Limitations

     An administrative count of advisories, not a measure of water security: lifting an advisory does not guarantee it stays lifted, and private systems, semi-public systems and communities north of 60° are counted differently or not at all. The page is a live counter, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-22-104241) (2022)

     Alaska Native Issues: Federal Agencies Could Enhance Support for Native Village Efforts to Address Environmental Threats

     More than 70 out of over 200 Alaska Native villages face significant environmental threats from erosion, flooding, or thawing permafrost. More than 30 federal programs could assist them, but most are difficult for small communities to access. GAO made eight recommendations to seven federal agencies and asked Congress to consider establishing an interagency entity to target federal investment.

     Published

     2022-05-18

     Evidence period

     Federal funding for fiscal years 2016 to 2020

     Geography

     United States (Alaska)

     Limitations

     Published in 2022, so it predates later federal climate and infrastructure funding, and the status of its recommendations is not captured here. It is Alaska-specific: it does not describe Tribal Nations in the contiguous United States. Threat counts rest on agency-supplied assessments.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (2025)

     Worst Case Housing Needs: 2025 Report to Congress

     "Between 2021 and 2023, cases of worst case needs remained elevated at 8.46 million households", close to the record 8.53 million. On supply, "in 2023, only 59 affordable units were available per 100 very low-income renter households, and only 38 units were available per 100 extremely low-income renter households". Worst case needs were found in every region but were most prevalent in the West, the South and urban suburbs.

     Published

     2025-11-20

     Evidence period

     Primarily the 2023 American Housing Survey, compared with 2019 and 2021

     Geography

     United States, by region and metropolitan category

     Limitations

     The survey data are from 2023 and the survey runs every two years. The definition is deliberately narrow, so it undercounts wider cost burden. The report's transmittal letter advances a contested policy interpretation about immigration and demand, which is the Department's argument rather than a finding from the survey data.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

3. Converting Human Capability into Productive Participation

   What is lost when people possess capability that institutions fail to recognize, deploy or develop?

   Strong measured skills sit alongside falling relative productivity and significant credential under-use, particularly among recent immigrants.

   4P: People, Process, PortfolioSDGs: 4, 8, 10

   Rests on: Capability is abundant; converting it into outcomes is uneven

   • Source Statistics Canada (2024)

     Literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving skills of Canadians: Results from the 2022 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies

     "Canada's average score in literacy (271), numeracy (271) and adaptive problem solving (259) was above the OECD averages of 259, 262 and 250, respectively." Among the 27 participating OECD countries, Canada ranked in the top 10 in all three skill domains, and had one of the smallest proportions of adults in the two lowest literacy levels (19% compared with 27% among participating OECD countries).

     Published

     2024-12-10

     Evidence period

     Collected 2022 to 2023, compared with the 2012 cycle

     Geography

     Canada, compared with 27 participating OECD countries

     Limitations

     Cycle 2 data exclude the territories. The assessment was administered in English or French, so performance can reflect language proficiency as well as skill, which matters in a country with a large immigrant population. Scores are sample estimates, so a precise rank position within the top ten is not established.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Statistics Canada (2026)

     Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

     Recent immigrants were most likely to report being overqualified for their job (32.6%), against 22.4% of established immigrants and 19.1% of people born in Canada. On the harder measure, 25.6% of recent immigrants were working in a job requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Recent immigrants with a degree above a bachelor's were "about 6 times more likely than those born in Canada to be working in a job requiring only a high school diploma or less (16.1% vs. 2.8%)".

     Published

     2026-04-07

     Evidence period

     September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined

     Geography

     Canada

     Limitations

     A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Statistics Canada, Economic and Social Reports (2026)

     Measuring Canada's economic performance relative to the United States

     "Canada's relative labour productivity has fallen 26% since the late 1990s", standing at 73.9 against a first-quarter-1997 base of 100. Relative output per capita in the third quarter of 2025 was 14% below early-1997 levels, and relative GNI per capita 10% below.

     Published

     2026-03-25

     Evidence period

     First quarter 1997 to third quarter 2025

     Geography

     Canada relative to the United States

     Limitations

     These are relative index levels rebased to the first quarter of 1997, not absolute productivity levels or a dollar gap, so the base period shapes the headline. Cross-country comparison depends on purchasing-power conversion and hours-worked measurement, both of which are revised.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

4. Treating Resilience as a Present Portfolio Decision

   What must leaders protect now when the benefits of resilience may not become visible until after their tenure?

   Rising resilience demands meet ageing systems and constrained budgets, so protection is a choice made now and paid for now.

   4P: Planet, Portfolio, Process, PeopleSDGs: 9, 11, 13

   Rests on: Resilience requirements are rising faster than many systems were designed to absorb; Delivery capacity is becoming as decisive as policy ambition

   • Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report (2022)

     Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 14: North America

     Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent and intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America; accelerating hazards pose significant risks to well-being (high confidence). Entrenched socioeconomic vulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for marginalised groups, including Indigenous Peoples, due to the impact of colonialism and discrimination (medium confidence). Without limiting warming to 1.5°C, key risks to North America are expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century, including irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing and disruption of livelihoods (high confidence). Immediate, widespread and coordinated adaptation focused on equity has the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans (high confidence).

     Published

     2022

     Evidence period

     Assessed literature to 2021

     Geography

     Canada, Mexico and the United States

     Limitations

     An assessment of published literature with a 2021 cut-off. Confidence levels vary by finding and are stated with each one.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (2025)

     Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: United States summary

     From 1980 to 2024 there were 403 confirmed weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each, totalling $2,918.1 billion and 16,941 deaths. The 1980-2024 annual average is 9.0 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent five years, 2020-2024, is 23.0 events.

     Published

     2025

     Evidence period

     1980 to 2024

     Geography

     United States

     Limitations

     The series has been retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024, so there is no official figure for 2025 or later; NOAA states the 1980-2024 archive remains authoritative. It counts direct losses only, above a $1 billion threshold that is sensitive to inflation, and draws partly on private insurance data that is not public.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Canadian Infrastructure Council (2025)

     Building Foundations for Tomorrow: Assessing Housing-Enabling Infrastructure Across Canada (National Infrastructure Assessment, Report 1)

     In 2022, 11% of housing-enabling infrastructure was classified as being in poor or very poor condition, with an estimated replacement value of $126 billion. More than 11% of water and wastewater-related assets were in poor or very poor condition (an estimated $107 billion), as were more than 13% of public transit assets (nearly $15 billion).

     Published

     2025

     Evidence period

     Condition data for 2022

     Geography

     Canada

     Limitations

     Condition ratings are self-reported by the asset owners, mostly municipalities, rather than independently assessed, and the data are from 2022. The scope is deliberately narrow: roads, bridges, energy, health and school buildings are outside the headline figure. This is the first report in the series, so there is no prior-year baseline.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

   • Source Congressional Budget Office (2026)

     The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036

     In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and grows to $3.1 trillion by 2036, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. The deficit is 5.8 percent of GDP in 2026, growing to 6.7 percent in 2036, against the 3.8 percent averaged over the past 50 years. "Rising net interest costs drive much of that increase."

     Published

     2026-02-11

     Evidence period

     Fiscal years 2026 to 2036

     Geography

     United States (federal government)

     Limitations

     A projection under current law, not a forecast: it excludes appropriation acts passed after 14 January 2026 and any later legislation, and runs only ten years. CBO published data rather than a narrative long-term outlook in 2026.

     Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Innovation and diffusion

  The region leads in inventing, while the benefits concentrate in the organizations most able to absorb what is invented.

  Backing frontier capability is legitimate. So is spending the same effort on helping small organizations use what already exists.

  • Source Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) (2025)

    The 2025 AI Index Report

    In 2024, U.S. private AI investment grew to $109.1 billion, nearly 12 times China's $9.3 billion, and U.S.-based institutions produced 40 notable AI models.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    2024

    Geography

    Global, with country comparisons

    Limitations

    Investment figures come from commercial data providers and cover private investment only. Country comparisons say nothing about who inside a country benefits.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (2026)

    Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users

    Across December 2025 to May 2026, "AI usage hovered between 17% and 20%", standing at 19.8% on May 3, 2026. Adoption is strongly graded by size: 37% of firms with at least 250 employees and 32% of firms with 100 to 249 employees reported using AI, against less than 20% of firms with four or fewer employees. "AI use increased among firms with at least 20 employees but didn't change significantly among firms with fewer than 20 employees."

    Published

    2026-05-26

    Evidence period

    Collection periods December 14, 2025 to May 3, 2026

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    An experimental Census data product. Use is self-reported over a two-week window and says nothing about depth, spending or realised productivity. The headline rate is firm-weighted, so "most firms do not use AI" and "many workers are at firms that do" can both be true. The trend window is under six months.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Business Conditions (2026)

    Analysis on artificial intelligence use by businesses in Canada, second quarter of 2026

    "In the second quarter of 2026, 19.2% of businesses reported using AI to produce goods or deliver services over the 12 months preceding the survey." That is triple the 6.1% reported in the second quarter of 2024, and up from 12.2% a year earlier. The most common uses were data analytics (36.6%), text analytics (34.5%) and virtual agents or chat bots (28.2%).

    Published

    2026-06-11

    Evidence period

    Collected April 1 to May 6, 2026, reporting on the preceding 12 months

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    Self-reported adoption with no measure of intensity or outcome: "using AI" covers everything from one chatbot to redesigned operations. The rolling 12-month reference window differs by respondent, and roughly half the sample did not respond. No comparison with the United States is made.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2025)

    The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025

    Generative AI use among adults rose from 44.6% in August 2024 to 54.6% a year later, and use at work from 33.3% to 37.4%, but intensity stayed low: the share of work hours spent using it rose from 4.1% to 5.7%. Across all workers, reported time savings equal 1.6% of work hours, which the authors say "suggests that generative AI may have increased labor productivity by up to 1.3% since the introduction of ChatGPT", while stressing the correlation "cannot be interpreted as causal".

    Published

    2025-11-13

    Evidence period

    Real-Time Population Survey, August 2024 to August 2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    Time savings are self-reported, not measured output, and the productivity figure is an upper bound from a stylised model. The authors state plainly that the correlation "cannot be interpreted as causal". Published as central-bank blog research rather than peer-reviewed work.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• National ambition and local execution

  National programmes set the ambition; delivery happens in a municipality, a community or a Tribal government with its own capacity.

  National standards make outcomes comparable. Local control makes them achievable.

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-26-108434) (2026)

    Funding Status: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act

    "Of the approximately $574.7 billion provided to them, the four agencies obligated about 76 percent and disbursed about 54 percent of obligated funds for fiscal years 2022 to 2025." The pace differs sharply by programme: about 89 percent of NTIA's IIJA funding was for the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment Program, where "NTIA disbursed about 2 percent of the funding it obligated", while for EPA's Drinking Water State Revolving Fund, "EPA obligated about 60 percent of the appropriations for this program and disbursed almost 25 percent of the obligated amount as of September 30, 2025".

    Published

    2026-07-22

    Evidence period

    Fiscal years 2022 to 2025, status as of September 30, 2025

    Geography

    United States

    Limitations

    A financial status report, not an evaluation of what was built. Obligation and disbursement are accounting stages, and capital programmes legitimately lag, so a low disbursement rate is a signal to examine rather than proof of failure. It covers four agencies only.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-24-106541) (2024)

    Tribal Broadband: Additional Assistance to Recipients Would Better Support Implementation of $3 Billion in Federal Grants

    "NTIA was appropriated $3 billion for TBCP", completing the first of two funding rounds in September 2023, reaching 31 tribal recipients that had not recently participated in eight other key federal broadband programs. GAO found "it will be difficult to financially sustain networks built under TBCP": over half of recipients with infrastructure projects planned to rely on other federal funding that has proven difficult to obtain or has ended. NTIA agreed with all three recommendations.

    Published

    2024-06-24

    Evidence period

    Tribal Broadband Connectivity Program round one, completed September 2023

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    The interview sample is explicitly non-generalizable and covers round one only. The report examines grant administration and financial sustainability. It contains no data on networks completed or households connected, so it cannot show connectivity outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Canadian Infrastructure Council (2025)

    Building Foundations for Tomorrow: Assessing Housing-Enabling Infrastructure Across Canada (National Infrastructure Assessment, Report 1)

    In 2022, 11% of housing-enabling infrastructure was classified as being in poor or very poor condition, with an estimated replacement value of $126 billion. More than 11% of water and wastewater-related assets were in poor or very poor condition (an estimated $107 billion), as were more than 13% of public transit assets (nearly $15 billion).

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    Condition data for 2022

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    Condition ratings are self-reported by the asset owners, mostly municipalities, rather than independently assessed, and the data are from 2022. The scope is deliberately narrow: roads, bridges, energy, health and school buildings are outside the headline figure. This is the first report in the series, so there is no prior-year baseline.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Immediate affordability and long-term resilience

  Resilience is paid for now and shows up later, against budgets with rising debt service and immediate cost pressure.

  Keeping costs bearable today is a legitimate duty. So is protecting what the next generation inherits.

  • Source Congressional Budget Office (2026)

    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036

    In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion and grows to $3.1 trillion by 2036, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. The deficit is 5.8 percent of GDP in 2026, growing to 6.7 percent in 2036, against the 3.8 percent averaged over the past 50 years. "Rising net interest costs drive much of that increase."

    Published

    2026-02-11

    Evidence period

    Fiscal years 2026 to 2036

    Geography

    United States (federal government)

    Limitations

    A projection under current law, not a forecast: it excludes appropriation acts passed after 14 January 2026 and any later legislation, and runs only ten years. CBO published data rather than a narrative long-term outlook in 2026.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (Canada) (2025)

    Budget 2025: Long-term Fiscal Sustainability

    The PBO estimates the federal fiscal gap at -0.1 per cent of GDP, or $4.2 billion: the federal government could permanently increase spending or reduce revenues by 0.1 per cent of GDP while returning the federal debt-to-GDP ratio in 2055-56 to its initial level of 41.2 per cent. On that basis, "current fiscal policy in Budget 2025 would be deemed sustainable over the long term".

    Published

    2025-12-17

    Evidence period

    Baseline 2024-25, projected to 2055-56

    Geography

    Canada (federal government)

    Limitations

    A 30-year projection resting on Finance Canada's own demographic and economic assumptions, not an outcome. It covers the federal government only, so it says nothing about the provincial and municipal budgets where most infrastructure and service delivery pressure sits.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report (2022)

    Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 14: North America

    Since AR5, climate-change impacts have become more frequent and intense and have affected many millions of people from every region and sector across North America; accelerating hazards pose significant risks to well-being (high confidence). Entrenched socioeconomic vulnerabilities have amplified climate impacts for marginalised groups, including Indigenous Peoples, due to the impact of colonialism and discrimination (medium confidence). Without limiting warming to 1.5°C, key risks to North America are expected to intensify rapidly by mid-century, including irreversible changes to ecosystems, mounting damages to infrastructure and housing and disruption of livelihoods (high confidence). Immediate, widespread and coordinated adaptation focused on equity has the greatest potential to maintain and improve the quality of life for North Americans (high confidence).

    Published

    2022

    Evidence period

    Assessed literature to 2021

    Geography

    Canada, Mexico and the United States

    Limitations

    An assessment of published literature with a 2021 cut-off. Confidence levels vary by finding and are stated with each one.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Philadelphia Water Department (2026)

    15 Years of Green City, Clean Waters

    At its fifteen-year milestone the city "surpassed the requirement of 3,812 Greened Acres with more than 3,860 Greened Acres completed", delivered through "more than 1,100 public and private stormwater management projects", with 14+ miles of interceptor rehabilitation completed or underway against a 14.5-mile standard. The programme runs under a 2011 Pennsylvania consent order and a 2012 EPA order, to 2036.

    Published

    2026-07-16

    Evidence period

    2011 to 2026, against a programme running to 2036

    Geography

    United States, Philadelphia's combined sewer service area

    Limitations

    Self-reported compliance reporting by the water department, not an independent audit. A "Greened Acre" is a regulatory accounting unit for impervious area managed, not a measure of water quality, health or flood risk, and the volume figure is anticipated rather than metered. No Year 15 statutory evaluation plan was published at the time of reading.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• Efficiency and inclusion

  The fastest route to a target serves the easiest places first, and the communities furthest from service are the most expensive to reach.

  Reaching the most people per dollar is legitimate. So is refusing to leave the same communities last every time.

  • Source Federal Communications Commission (FCC 26-55) (2026)

    2026 Section 706 Report on the Deployment of Advanced Telecommunications Capability

    As of June 2025, "approximately 97% of Americans had access to Fixed Terrestrial Service at 100/20 Mbps". Availability was approximately 99.5% in urban areas, against approximately 86.7% in rural areas and approximately 87.6% on Tribal lands.

    Published

    2026-08-14

    Evidence period

    Broadband Data Collection deployment data as of June 30, 2025

    Geography

    United States, with rural, urban and Tribal lands breakdowns

    Limitations

    This measures availability, not adoption, affordability or actual subscription: a household counted as served may not have service. It rests on provider-reported data. The Commission's conclusion that deployment is "reasonable and timely" is a policy judgement that reverses the 2024 report's finding, not a change in the underlying data.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-24-106541) (2024)

    Tribal Broadband: Additional Assistance to Recipients Would Better Support Implementation of $3 Billion in Federal Grants

    "NTIA was appropriated $3 billion for TBCP", completing the first of two funding rounds in September 2023, reaching 31 tribal recipients that had not recently participated in eight other key federal broadband programs. GAO found "it will be difficult to financially sustain networks built under TBCP": over half of recipients with infrastructure projects planned to rely on other federal funding that has proven difficult to obtain or has ended. NTIA agreed with all three recommendations.

    Published

    2024-06-24

    Evidence period

    Tribal Broadband Connectivity Program round one, completed September 2023

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    The interview sample is explicitly non-generalizable and covers round one only. The report examines grant administration and financial sustainability. It contains no data on networks completed or households connected, so it cannot show connectivity outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Indigenous Services Canada (2026)

    Ending long-term drinking water advisories

    158 long-term drinking water advisories have been lifted since November 2015, and 38 long-term drinking water advisories remain in effect in 36 communities. An advisory becomes long-term once it has been in place for more than 12 months.

    Published

    2026-09-10

    Evidence period

    November 2015 to September 10, 2026

    Geography

    Canada (First Nations communities on reserve, south of 60°)

    Limitations

    An administrative count of advisories, not a measure of water security: lifting an advisory does not guarantee it stays lifted, and private systems, semi-public systems and communities north of 60° are counted differently or not at all. The page is a live counter, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• SDG 4
  Quality education Supporting

  4.4: Substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills

  Strong measured adult skills alongside significant under-use of postsecondary credentials, especially among recent immigrants. Evidence-backed

  • Source Statistics Canada (2024)

    Literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving skills of Canadians: Results from the 2022 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies

    "Canada's average score in literacy (271), numeracy (271) and adaptive problem solving (259) was above the OECD averages of 259, 262 and 250, respectively." Among the 27 participating OECD countries, Canada ranked in the top 10 in all three skill domains, and had one of the smallest proportions of adults in the two lowest literacy levels (19% compared with 27% among participating OECD countries).

    Published

    2024-12-10

    Evidence period

    Collected 2022 to 2023, compared with the 2012 cycle

    Geography

    Canada, compared with 27 participating OECD countries

    Limitations

    Cycle 2 data exclude the territories. The assessment was administered in English or French, so performance can reflect language proficiency as well as skill, which matters in a country with a large immigrant population. Scores are sample estimates, so a precise rank position within the top ten is not established.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Statistics Canada (2026)

    Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

    Recent immigrants were most likely to report being overqualified for their job (32.6%), against 22.4% of established immigrants and 19.1% of people born in Canada. On the harder measure, 25.6% of recent immigrants were working in a job requiring a high school diploma or less, against 13.2% of the Canadian-born. Recent immigrants with a degree above a bachelor's were "about 6 times more likely than those born in Canada to be working in a job requiring only a high school diploma or less (16.1% vs. 2.8%)".

    Published

    2026-04-07

    Evidence period

    September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

• SDG 17
  Partnerships for the goals Supporting

  17.17: Encourage and promote effective public, public-private and civil society partnerships

  Federal funding delivered through Tribal governments and Indigenous-led programmes that design and operate the work themselves. Evidence-backed

  • Source National Telecommunications and Information Administration (2025)

    NTIA Announces Tribal Broadband Program Reforms to Maximize Tribal Connectivity and Reduce Red Tape

    "NTIA has already made 275 awards totaling $2.2 billion with TBCP funding." The first notice of funding opportunity "awarded more than $1.87 billion in funds through 226 projects impacting more than 400 Tribes", and the second "awarded $360 million in funds across 48 projects". Remaining tribal broadband funding, estimated at at least $500 million, was to be offered through a new notice in spring 2026.

    Published

    2025-11-12

    Evidence period

    Cumulative programme awards to November 2025

    Geography

    United States, Tribal lands

    Limitations

    An agency press release reporting awards made, not construction completed, service activated or households connected. No connectivity outcome can be inferred from it.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

  • Source Parks Canada Agency (2025)

    Evaluation of the Indigenous Guardians Initiative: Internal review

    Parks Canada received $61.7 million to be invested between 2021-22 and 2025-26. As of November 2024 the initiative reported 37 new or enhanced Indigenous Guardians Programs in the implementation or sustain phases, plus five in capacity building. Spending ramped up slowly: $1.03 million in 2021-22, $5.93 million in 2022-23 and $10.25 million in 2023-24. The review found the initiative "has been effective in supporting the development of Indigenous Guardians programs", but that evidence of a strategy to support the programs beyond 2026 was limited.

    Published

    2025

    Evidence period

    Activities 2021-22 to 2024-25; fieldwork August 2023 to July 2024

    Geography

    Canada

    Limitations

    An internal review, not an independent evaluation, and it explicitly did not examine the performance of individual programs, "the aims of which are determined by the values and priorities of Indigenous communities". It covers Parks Canada's portion of the federal investment only. So it documents delivery and a funding-cliff risk, not measured stewardship outcomes.

    Open the original source · See it in the source list

Primary Goals carry the region's inquiry; supporting Goals are touched by it. They are not equally weighted, and no ratio is required: weighting follows the region's mechanism, not how often a Goal is referenced. Clean water and sanitation is primary here because the water evidence is a direct manifestation of this region's capability-to-outcomes problem, and peace, justice and strong institutions is primary because institutional delivery is structurally central to the mechanism. Neither is demoted by counting mentions.

1. Baton Handover In

   The incoming and outgoing regions are both live. Intellectual content, not an emcee transition.

2. Opening Regional Provocation

   One strong regional voice frames the movement: what is happening in this region right now, and why should the rest of the world care?

3. Regional Reality

   The evidence: what is actually true in this region.

4. Responses, Experiments and Tensions

   The practical core: what is being tried, and where it is contested.

5. Regional Synthesis

   What we learned, what challenged our assumptions and where we disagreed.

6. Baton Question + Handover Out

   The signature moment. The baton never simply moves: it evolves.

• Systems delivery practitioner

  Knowledge required Has run a large public programme from commitment through procurement to delivered service, and can say where it actually slowed.

  Why this is needed The region's evidence points at the pipeline between decision and delivery, which only someone who has operated one can describe honestly.

• First Nations, Inuit or Métis knowledge holder

  Knowledge required Holds community knowledge of stewardship, water or infrastructure delivery, and of governing that work as its owner.

  Why this is needed Indigenous communities in this region are designers, owners and operators, not only affected populations, and the room must show that.

• U.S. Tribal leader or practitioner

  Knowledge required Has led or delivered a Tribal programme such as broadband, water or climate relocation, including its sustainability after the grant.

  Why this is needed 275 Tribal broadband awards exist and their long-term sustainability is unresolved; the people running them know why.

• AI implementation leader

  Knowledge required Has put AI into a working organization and redesigned the work around it, not only procured the tool.

  Why this is needed Adoption is rising while redesign lags; the gap between the two is the conversation.

• Labour and workforce researcher

  Knowledge required Works with labour market and skills data across Canada or the United States, including its limits.

  Why this is needed The skills-to-work conversion claim rests on data that must be presented with its caveats intact.

• Youth contributor

  Knowledge required Is entering the labour market now, in this region, and can speak to that entry directly.

  Why this is needed Decisions about skills and technology are made mostly by people who are not living their consequences.

• Immigrant skills integration practitioner or researcher

  Knowledge required Works on credential recognition, licensing or employer practice, and knows where recognition actually breaks.

  Why this is needed Measured under-use of immigrant credentials is one of the region's clearest conversion failures.

• Housing or local-government practitioner

  Knowledge required Has delivered housing or local services under a municipal mandate, with real constraints on staff, land and money.

  Why this is needed National ambition meets local execution here, and outcomes differ by city rather than by country.

• Infrastructure or project-delivery leader

  Knowledge required Has moved capital programmes from obligation to construction, and can explain the lag rather than defend it.

  Why this is needed Disbursement rates are the region's sharpest evidence of a delivery problem, and need someone who can read them fairly.

• Climate resilience practitioner

  Knowledge required Has delivered adaptation or resilience work, such as stormwater, relocation or hardening, on a multi-year horizon.

  Why this is needed Resilience is a present portfolio decision whose benefits arrive after the decision-maker's tenure.

• Institutional trust researcher

  Knowledge required Studies confidence in institutions in Canada or the United States and understands why the two countries' measures are not comparable.

  Why this is needed The trust evidence is easy to misuse, and the movement should be precise about what it does and does not show.

• Small or medium-sized enterprise leader

  Knowledge required Runs an organization small enough that new technology and new requirements compete with the day's work.

  Why this is needed Adoption is rising only among larger firms, so the room needs the perspective that is being left behind.

What this movement will contribute to the LEAD48 Global Leadership Report 2027. Every field is filled from the live movement, including what changed our mind.

What this movement finds is written in the room during the relay and becomes its part of the LEAD48 Global Leadership Report 2027. How the five outputs work

• No harmonized Canada and United States trust comparison

  The Pew and Statistics Canada measures ask different questions of different populations in different years. They show a consistent direction, not a comparable number.

  Affects: Prevailing conditions, leadership priority 1

• Realized economic effects of generative AI are uncertain

  Adoption is measured; productivity and output effects are not. Every AI figure here counts use, not result.

  Affects: Conditions, the diffusion priority, the 4P Process lens

• The long-run employment effect of AI is unresolved

  No source reviewed establishes what AI does to employment in this region over time, and the brief makes no claim about it.

  Affects: What is changing fastest

• Indigenous housing and demographic data are older

  The census evidence used here is from 2021, which remains the latest authoritative release of its kind.

  Affects: Who experiences the region differently

• Infrastructure outcome evaluation is incomplete

  Obligation and disbursement are accounting stages. What was actually built, and to what standard, is not established by the funding-status evidence.

  Affects: Delivery capacity condition, response cases

• Tribal broadband outcomes are still developing

  275 awards totalling $2.2 billion are documented. Networks completed, households connected and long-term sustainability are not.

  Affects: Response cases, geographic inequality condition

• Green infrastructure results are outputs, not measured impact

  Philadelphia's greened acres are a regulatory accounting unit. Improvements in water quality, health or flood risk are not attributed to the programme by the source.

  Affects: Response cases, the 4P Planet lens

• Housing outcomes cannot be attributed to a single reform

  Where housing policy and housing starts are both recorded, the source data do not establish that one caused the other.

  Affects: Response cases

• Rural and remote digital measures are imperfectly harmonized

  Broadband availability data are provider-reported and measure availability rather than adoption or affordability, and Canadian and U.S. definitions differ.

  Affects: Geographic inequality condition

• The consequences of recent migration policy are uncertain

  Population and migration levels have shifted recently in both countries, and the downstream effects on labour markets and services are not yet established.

  Affects: What is changing fastest

• No current authoritative measure of permitting or delivery time

  The U.S. federal environmental-review timelines publication was withdrawn during 2025, and no replacement was found, so the brief carries no figure for how long delivery takes.

  Affects: Delivery capacity condition, tensions

• Calgary's citywide rezoning has been repealed

  Calgary approved citywide rezoning in May 2024 and approved its repeal on April 8, 2026, effective August 4, 2026. The city's record 2025 housing starts must not be read as the result of a policy that has since been reversed. The City's own page also carries a date discrepancy, giving the effective date as 2024 in one place and 2026 in another. The case is therefore classified contested rather than as an established local success, which is a settled editorial decision rather than an open question.

  Affects: Response cases

1. Public Trust in Government: 1958-2025

   Pew Research Center · 2025-12-04 · Evidence period: 1958-2025 · Geography: United States

   Population: U.S. adults (survey trend compiled from Pew Research Center and National Election Study data)

   Limitations: United States only; it says nothing about trust in Canada or Mexico. Measures trust in the federal government in Washington, one survey question over time.

2. Indigenous population continues to grow and is much younger than the non-Indigenous population, although the pace of growth has slowed

   Statistics Canada, The Daily · 2022-09-21 · Evidence period: 2021 Census of Population (with 2016 comparison) · Geography: Canada

   Population: People enumerated in the 2021 Census who identified as Indigenous

   Limitations: Canada only. Statistics Canada notes that growth partly reflects response mobility (people answering the Indigenous identity questions differently from one census to the next), and that some reserves and settlements were incompletely enumerated.

3. The 2025 AI Index Report

   Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) · 2025 · Evidence period: 2024 · Geography: Global, with country comparisons

   Population: Not a population survey: investment, model and research data

   Limitations: Investment figures come from commercial data providers and cover private investment only. Country comparisons say nothing about who inside a country benefits.

4. Ending long-term drinking water advisories

   Indigenous Services Canada · 2026-09-10 · Evidence period: November 2015 to September 10, 2026 · Geography: Canada (First Nations communities on reserve, south of 60°)

   Population: Public drinking water systems on reserve that are funded by Indigenous Services Canada

   Limitations: An administrative count of advisories, not a measure of water security: lifting an advisory does not guarantee it stays lifted, and private systems, semi-public systems and communities north of 60° are counted differently or not at all. The page is a live counter, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026.

5. 2025 Report Card for America's Infrastructure

   American Society of Civil Engineers · 2025-03-25 · Evidence period: Condition as of 2025; investment need and gap modelled for 2024 to 2033 · Geography: United States

   Population: Eighteen categories of U.S. public and private infrastructure

   Limitations: ASCE is a professional body that advocates for higher infrastructure investment, so this is an expert assessment against its own criteria rather than an independent audit. Its own pages state the gap as both $3.6 trillion and $3.7 trillion; the economics page and ASCE's news release say $3.7 trillion.

6. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: United States summary

   NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information · 2025 · Evidence period: 1980 to 2024 · Geography: United States

   Population: U.S. weather and climate disaster events with direct losses above $1 billion each

   Limitations: The series has been retired, with no updates beyond calendar year 2024, so there is no official figure for 2025 or later; NOAA states the 1980-2024 archive remains authoritative. It counts direct losses only, above a $1 billion threshold that is sensitive to inflation, and draws partly on private insurance data that is not public.

7. Literacy, numeracy and adaptive problem solving skills of Canadians: Results from the 2022 Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies

   Statistics Canada · 2024-12-10 · Evidence period: Collected 2022 to 2023, compared with the 2012 cycle · Geography: Canada, compared with 27 participating OECD countries

   Population: Adults aged 16 to 65

   Limitations: Cycle 2 data exclude the territories. The assessment was administered in English or French, so performance can reflect language proficiency as well as skill, which matters in a country with a large immigrant population. Scores are sample estimates, so a precise rank position within the top ten is not established.

8. Measuring Canada's economic performance relative to the United States

   Statistics Canada, Economic and Social Reports · 2026-03-25 · Evidence period: First quarter 1997 to third quarter 2025 · Geography: Canada relative to the United States

   Population: National and business-sector aggregates

   Limitations: These are relative index levels rebased to the first quarter of 1997, not absolute productivity levels or a dollar gap, so the base period shapes the headline. Cross-country comparison depends on purchasing-power conversion and hours-worked measurement, both of which are revised.

9. Funding Status: Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and Inflation Reduction Act

   U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-26-108434) · 2026-07-22 · Evidence period: Fiscal years 2022 to 2025, status as of September 30, 2025 · Geography: United States

   Population: Four federal agencies: EPA, the Department of Transportation, the Department of the Interior and NTIA

   Limitations: A financial status report, not an evaluation of what was built. Obligation and disbursement are accounting stages, and capital programmes legitimately lag, so a low disbursement rate is a signal to examine rather than proof of failure. It covers four agencies only.

10. Tribal Broadband: Additional Assistance to Recipients Would Better Support Implementation of $3 Billion in Federal Grants

    U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-24-106541) · 2024-06-24 · Evidence period: Tribal Broadband Connectivity Program round one, completed September 2023 · Geography: United States, Tribal lands

    Population: Tribal Broadband Connectivity Program grant recipients; a non-generalizable sample of 16 recipients was interviewed

    Limitations: The interview sample is explicitly non-generalizable and covers round one only. The report examines grant administration and financial sustainability. It contains no data on networks completed or households connected, so it cannot show connectivity outcomes.

11. 2026 Section 706 Report on the Deployment of Advanced Telecommunications Capability

    Federal Communications Commission (FCC 26-55) · 2026-08-14 · Evidence period: Broadband Data Collection deployment data as of June 30, 2025 · Geography: United States, with rural, urban and Tribal lands breakdowns

    Population: The whole U.S. population

    Limitations: This measures availability, not adoption, affordability or actual subscription: a household counted as served may not have service. It rests on provider-reported data. The Commission's conclusion that deployment is "reasonable and timely" is a policy judgement that reverses the 2024 report's finding, not a change in the underlying data.

12. Alaska Native Issues: Federal Agencies Could Enhance Support for Native Village Efforts to Address Environmental Threats

    U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-22-104241) · 2022-05-18 · Evidence period: Federal funding for fiscal years 2016 to 2020 · Geography: United States (Alaska)

    Population: Alaska Native villages and the federal agencies serving them

    Limitations: Published in 2022, so it predates later federal climate and infrastructure funding, and the status of its recommendations is not captured here. It is Alaska-specific: it does not describe Tribal Nations in the contiguous United States. Threat counts rest on agency-supplied assessments.

13. Worst Case Housing Needs: 2025 Report to Congress

    U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development · 2025-11-20 · Evidence period: Primarily the 2023 American Housing Survey, compared with 2019 and 2021 · Geography: United States, by region and metropolitan category

    Population: Very low-income renter households without government housing assistance

    Limitations: The survey data are from 2023 and the survey runs every two years. The definition is deliberately narrow, so it undercounts wider cost burden. The report's transmittal letter advances a contested policy interpretation about immigration and demand, which is the Department's argument rather than a finding from the survey data.

14. Large Firms With at Least 20 Employees Biggest AI Users

    U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey · 2026-05-26 · Evidence period: Collection periods December 14, 2025 to May 3, 2026 · Geography: United States

    Population: U.S. employer businesses excluding farms, from a sample of approximately 1.2 million businesses

    Limitations: An experimental Census data product. Use is self-reported over a two-week window and says nothing about depth, spending or realised productivity. The headline rate is firm-weighted, so "most firms do not use AI" and "many workers are at firms that do" can both be true. The trend window is under six months.

15. Analysis on artificial intelligence use by businesses in Canada, second quarter of 2026

    Statistics Canada, Canadian Survey on Business Conditions · 2026-06-11 · Evidence period: Collected April 1 to May 6, 2026, reporting on the preceding 12 months · Geography: Canada

    Population: Businesses with employees; 9,251 responses from a sample of 21,105

    Limitations: Self-reported adoption with no measure of intensity or outcome: "using AI" covers everything from one chatbot to redesigned operations. The rolling 12-month reference window differs by respondent, and roughly half the sample did not respond. No comparison with the United States is made.

16. Artificial Intelligence: Generative AI Use and Management at Federal Agencies

    U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO-25-107653) · 2025-07-29 · Evidence period: Agency AI use-case inventories for 2023 and 2024 · Geography: United States (federal agencies)

    Population: Twelve selected federal agencies; eleven publish AI inventories (the Department of Defense is exempt)

    Limitations: Counts are self-reported by agencies and cover twelve selected agencies, not the whole federal government. It measures adoption and management practice, not outcomes for the public. Federal AI guidance changed in early 2025, so the two years are not a clean like-for-like trend.

17. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 14: North America

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Working Group II, Sixth Assessment Report · 2022 · Evidence period: Assessed literature to 2021 · Geography: Canada, Mexico and the United States

    Population: Regional assessment; not a survey

    Limitations: An assessment of published literature with a 2021 cut-off. Confidence levels vary by finding and are stated with each one.

18. Building Foundations for Tomorrow: Assessing Housing-Enabling Infrastructure Across Canada (National Infrastructure Assessment, Report 1)

    Canadian Infrastructure Council · 2025 · Evidence period: Condition data for 2022 · Geography: Canada

    Population: Housing-enabling public infrastructure: water, wastewater, stormwater and public transit assets

    Limitations: Condition ratings are self-reported by the asset owners, mostly municipalities, rather than independently assessed, and the data are from 2022. The scope is deliberately narrow: roads, bridges, energy, health and school buildings are outside the headline figure. This is the first report in the series, so there is no prior-year baseline.

19. NOAA Atlas 15 Pilot Technical Report, Version 1.1.p

    NOAA National Weather Service, Office of Water Prediction · 2025-03-25 · Evidence period: Montana pilot domain; present-day estimates for base year 2023 and projections to 2100 · Geography: United States, piloted over Montana ahead of national rollout

    Population: Engineering design and floodplain regulation practice

    Limitations: The report states its values "are preliminary and intended for comparison and feedback purposes only as this analysis has not completed the peer review process". Results are for the Montana pilot and do not generalise nationally; differences run in both directions. Projections depend on downscaled climate models and emissions scenarios, and the publication timetable has already moved once.

20. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036

    Congressional Budget Office · 2026-02-11 · Evidence period: Fiscal years 2026 to 2036 · Geography: United States (federal government)

    Population: Federal deficits, debt, outlays and revenues

    Limitations: A projection under current law, not a forecast: it excludes appropriation acts passed after 14 January 2026 and any later legislation, and runs only ten years. CBO published data rather than a narrative long-term outlook in 2026.

21. Budget 2025: Long-term Fiscal Sustainability

    Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (Canada) · 2025-12-17 · Evidence period: Baseline 2024-25, projected to 2055-56 · Geography: Canada (federal government)

    Population: Federal debt, spending and revenue

    Limitations: A 30-year projection resting on Finance Canada's own demographic and economic assumptions, not an outcome. It covers the federal government only, so it says nothing about the provincial and municipal budgets where most infrastructure and service delivery pressure sits.

22. Confidence in institutions and the media, 2023

    Statistics Canada · 2024-02-13 · Evidence period: Collected October 20 to December 3, 2023 · Geography: Canada

    Population: Canadians aged 15 and older in the ten provinces (Canadian Social Survey - Quality of Life, Renter Experiences and Trust)

    Limitations: Self-reported confidence from one survey period, and "high confidence" is defined as a score of 4 or 5 on a 1-to-5 scale, which compresses the middle of the distribution. Excludes the territories. Not directly comparable with the U.S. Pew trust question, which asks a different thing.

23. Evaluation of the Indigenous Guardians Initiative: Internal review

    Parks Canada Agency · 2025 · Evidence period: Activities 2021-22 to 2024-25; fieldwork August 2023 to July 2024 · Geography: Canada

    Population: Indigenous Guardians Programs supported through Parks Canada's share of the federal commitment

    Limitations: An internal review, not an independent evaluation, and it explicitly did not examine the performance of individual programs, "the aims of which are determined by the values and priorities of Indigenous communities". It covers Parks Canada's portion of the federal investment only. So it documents delivery and a funding-cliff risk, not measured stewardship outcomes.

24. NTIA Announces Tribal Broadband Program Reforms to Maximize Tribal Connectivity and Reduce Red Tape

    National Telecommunications and Information Administration · 2025-11-12 · Evidence period: Cumulative programme awards to November 2025 · Geography: United States, Tribal lands

    Population: Tribal governments and organizations, Tribal Colleges and Universities, Alaska Native Corporations and the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands

    Limitations: An agency press release reporting awards made, not construction completed, service activated or households connected. No connectivity outcome can be inferred from it.

25. Job mismatch among core working age immigrants with postsecondary education

    Statistics Canada · 2026-04-07 · Evidence period: September 2024 and September 2025 Labour Force Survey data combined · Geography: Canada

    Population: Workers aged 25 to 54 holding a postsecondary diploma or degree

    Limitations: A custom tabulation from the Labour Force Survey, pooling two September snapshots, so seasonal composition is embedded. Overqualification is partly self-reported, and the analysis identifies the mismatch without separating its causes: credential recognition, language, networks and discrimination are not distinguished.

26. Employment and Unemployment Among Youth, Summer 2026

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2026-08-20 · Evidence period: April to July 2026, compared with July 2025 · Geography: United States

    Population: People aged 16 to 24

    Limitations: A July snapshot that is not seasonally adjusted, so it is not comparable with monthly headline series, and it covers all 16 to 24 year olds rather than recent graduates. Subgroup estimates are volatile.

27. The State of Generative AI Adoption in 2025

    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · 2025-11-13 · Evidence period: Real-Time Population Survey, August 2024 to August 2025 · Geography: United States

    Population: A nationally representative sample of adults aged 18 to 64

    Limitations: Time savings are self-reported, not measured output, and the productivity figure is an upper bound from a stylised model. The authors state plainly that the correlation "cannot be interpreted as causal". Published as central-bank blog research rather than peer-reviewed work.

28. Employment Projections: 2025 to 2035

    U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2026-08-27 · Evidence period: Base year 2025, projected to 2035 · Geography: United States

    Population: Total employment across 22 major occupational groups

    Limitations: A projection, not an outcome. BLS states that "this precision in the data does not account for the inherent uncertainty of predicting long-term changes in the labor market" and applies AI adjustments conservatively. It assumes full employment in the target year.

29. Rezoning for Housing: repeal of citywide rezoning

    The City of Calgary · 2026-07-21 · Evidence period: September 2023 to August 2026 · Geography: Canada, Calgary, Alberta

    Population: Land use across the city

    Limitations: A city project page rather than a decision record, and its own banner gives the effective date as August 4, 2024 while its timeline gives August 4, 2026; the timeline date is used here and the discrepancy is noted. The page does not say how many parcels either decision affected.

30. Housing starts up 5.6% in 2025 from 2024

    Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation · 2026-01-16 · Evidence period: Calendar years 2024 and 2025 · Geography: Canada, including census metropolitan areas

    Population: Housing starts in centres of 10,000 people or more

    Limitations: Starts are not completions and not occupancy, and metropolitan figures cover a wider area than a city's own boundary. CMHC attributes national gains partly to record rental construction, so no single municipal policy can be read out of these numbers.

31. Five Manitoba First Nations reach major milestones in improving access to safe drinking water

    Indigenous Services Canada · 2026-06-23 · Evidence period: To June 2026 · Geography: Canada, Manitoba (Treaty 1, 2 and 5 territories)

    Population: Approximately 9,525 community members living on reserve

    Limitations: A government news release announcing construction milestones, not an evaluation. It reports one advisory lifted of the five communities named, and no health or water-quality outcome data.

32. Active long-term drinking water advisories

    Indigenous Services Canada · 2026-09-11 · Evidence period: Numbers as of September 10, 2026 · Geography: Canada, First Nations public systems on reserve

    Population: Approximately 5,590 homes and 335 community buildings

    Limitations: A live administrative list, so the numbers move; these were read on September 10, 2026. It covers public systems on reserve funded by the department and says nothing about water quality where no advisory is in force.

33. 15 Years of Green City, Clean Waters

    Philadelphia Water Department · 2026-07-16 · Evidence period: 2011 to 2026, against a programme running to 2036 · Geography: United States, Philadelphia's combined sewer service area

    Population: Philadelphia residents in the combined sewer area

    Limitations: Self-reported compliance reporting by the water department, not an independent audit. A "Greened Acre" is a regulatory accounting unit for impervious area managed, not a measure of water quality, health or flood risk, and the volume figure is anticipated rather than metered. No Year 15 statutory evaluation plan was published at the time of reading.

34. St George Rainway

    City of Vancouver · 2025-09-01 · Evidence period: Project engagement and design to 2025 · Geography: Canada, Mount Pleasant, Vancouver, British Columbia

    Population: A four-block residential street and its catchment

    Limitations: A city engagement page: every benefit is stated as design intent in the future tense, and no measured performance is published. The page's construction dates are out of date, and the City's own project page could not be read directly at the time of writing, so the schedule is not confirmed here.

35. U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Historic Decline in Net International Migration

    U.S. Census Bureau · 2026-01-27 · Evidence period: July 1, 2024 to July 1, 2025 (Vintage 2025 estimates) · Geography: United States, by region and state

    Population: The resident population

    Limitations: These are estimates, not a census, and the Bureau warns that "year-to-year comparisons in the estimates should only be done within the same vintage" because of methodological updates. Part of the measured fall reflects a changed estimation method, and the 2026 figure quoted in the release is a projection.